Number Theory: The state of play in UP’s high-stakes bypoll battle

Nine assembly constituencies (ACs) in Uttar Pradesh will go to the polls on 13 November. The election in one more AC, Milkipur, has not been announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) ostensibly because of an ongoing court case. Since Uttar Pradesh gave one of the most surprising verdicts in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, and given the state’s importance in national politics (it sends the most representatives to the Lok Sabha), these bypolls are seen as a political weather vane of how things stand before the 2027 assembly elections.